US ‘Desperately’ Depends on China for AI Batteries as Trump Doubles Down on Big Tech - Why This Geopolitical Tension Defines the Next Decade of Artificial Intelligence

There's a fascinating paradox happening right now at the epicenter of the global race for artificial intelligence: while the United States declares its “love” for AI and promises absolute technological leadership, the country is facing a critical dependence on China precisely in the infrastructure that sustains this entire ecosystem - lithium-ion batteries.

And this is not a technical detail. It's a strategic issue that could redefine who really controls the future of AI.

In the last 24 hours, we've seen a series of news stories that, when analyzed together, reveal unprecedented geopolitical tension: on the one hand, Trump drives 4% growth per year by betting everything on artificial intelligence; on the other, investors flee Wall Street in fear of a speculative bubble and migrate to Chinese AI companies; meanwhile, in Brazil, we see practical examples of how technology is already multiplying productivity 72 times in real projects.

Let's break down what's happening - and, more importantly, what it means for those who want to understand and take advantage of this moment of transformation.

The Superpower's Hidden Weakness: Why the US ‘Desperately’ Needs Chinese Batteries

According to a report by New York Times, Despite the race for leadership in AI, the United States has a critical “weakness”: the desperate need for batteries produced by China.

Why does it matter so much?

Data centers that power AI systems - from ChatGPT to the proprietary models of the big techs - consume monumental amounts of electricity. And these systems need sophisticated backup batteries to ensure uninterrupted operation. Any power failure can mean loss of data, interruption of critical services and millions in damages.

The problem? China leads in almost all industrial lithium-ion battery components. The numbers are impressive:

• 99% LFP cells (Lithium Iron Phosphate) in the world are manufactured by China
• More than 90% main components of batteries come from Chinese chains
• The Pentagon depends on Chinese suppliers for around 6,000 battery components in weapons programs

Dan Wang, a researcher at the Hoover Institution, sums it up well: “Building an industry independent of China will be extremely difficult”.

Washington is pouring billions into domestic subsidies to try to reverse this dependency, but China's competitive advantage has been built up over decades of planned industrial investment. It's not something that can be solved with big checks and fiery speeches.

OpenAI, in a statement quoted in the report, made it clear: “Electricity is not simply a public service. It is a strategic asset that will guarantee our leadership in the most important technology since electricity”.

Notice the irony: the “most important technology since electricity” depends on another country to function reliably.

Trump Declares ‘I Love AI’ and Wall Street's Hair Stands on End: 4% Growth or Dangerous Bubble?

Meanwhile, on the American political side, we see a scenario of almost religious euphoria with artificial intelligence.

Second The Globe, Donald Trump's unrestricted support for big tech and AI is boosting US economic growth at an annual rate more than 4% in the last quarter. Trump is removing regulatory barriers to data centers, energy and chip sales, embracing AI as an engine of growth at any cost.

Kevin Hassett of the National Economic Council directly links the AI boom to presidential success. It's a huge political gamble.

But Wall Street analysts are increasingly nervous. The concern? Financial bubbles and sustainability of growth. Glenn Hubbard warns of the risk of massive job replacement, while Erik Brynjolfsson's research indicates a violent reshuffling of the workforce, disproportionately affecting young people.

On the other hand, Lisa Cook of the Federal Reserve monitors a potential positive effect: AI can help fight inflation through real productivity gains.

We are therefore at a moment of extreme dualitypolitical optimism versus institutional financial skepticism.

Investors Flee to Chinese AI: Alibaba, Moore Threads and the New Frontier of Opportunity

And here comes a movement that few expected: global investors are diversifying aggressively, increasing their bets on companies Chinese artificial intelligence.

According to CNN Brazil, The fear of a speculative bubble on Wall Street is driving capital to China. The valuation figures are revealing:

• Nasdaq is trading at 31 times the profit
• Hang Seng Tech is trading at 24 times the profit

Companies like Alibaba (with the Qwen AI model), Moore Threads (nicknamed the “Nvidia of China”) and MetaX are capitalizing on this growing interest.

Consulting firm Ruffer is adding positions in Chinese companies, recognizing that China is “closing the gap quickly” with the United States. UBS Global Wealth Management considers Chinese technology “the most attractive” due to Beijing's massive political support and ability to monetize quickly.

Rayliant has even launched a fund focused specifically on the “Chinese versions of Google, Meta, Tesla, Apple and OpenAI”.

Of course, there is skepticism. Kamil Dimmich argues that the valuations of listed Chinese chips are “almost entirely driven by hype”. But the geopolitical landscape is forcing China to invest heavily in technological self-sufficiency - and that creates real opportunities for those who know where to look.

The Brazilian Case: How AI Multiplied Productivity 72 Times in a Real Project

But enough about geopolitics and markets. Let's get down to business: what is AI doing in practice?

In an article I published in State, I shared a case that still impresses me today: a project for Sebrae where we transformed a dense 200-page report into an interactive and intelligent web platform.

The weather? 2 months.

The detail? This same project would take around 12 years using traditional methods. We're talking about 72 times faster.

How was this possible? Using AI agents that performed more than 16.4 thousand surveys and 220 thousand analyses - tasks that would be humanly impossible in the time available.

The big implication here is that AI is breaking the famous “iron triangle” of projects (deadline, cost, quality). Traditionally, you had to choose two of the three. Now, it's possible to deliver faster, with better quality and lower costs at the same time.

But there is a fundamental change in mentality: human labor migrates from executor to orchestrator. It's no longer about “what to do”, but about “how to do it” - about architecting solutions, asking the right questions, validating results, ensuring strategic alignment.

And here's my question for leaders and entrepreneurs: “What would you do if your competitor started delivering 20 times more for 10 times less?”

Because this is not a futuristic hypothesis. It's the present of those who have already mastered advanced AI.

Developers in Limbo: 65% Believe Their Roles Will Change in 2026

And the impact on the job market is already being felt - especially among software developers, one of the most valued professional categories of the last decade.

According to the Economic Value, 65% from the developers believe that their roles will change as early as 2026. The expectations are clear:

• 74% believe that they will focus more on solution design (architecture, strategy)
• 58% foresee a reduction in operational tasks through automation, leading to smaller teams
• 37% see AI as a “new coworker” that expands opportunities

It's a scenario of accelerated transformation. The good news? There is general optimism about professional adaptation in the sector - as long as professionals move quickly to acquire new skills.

And this is a trend that is replicated in other sectors. In Brazilian retail, for example, we've seen impressive results with conversational AI:

• C&A: conversion rate five times bigger with “AI Personal Shopper”
• Magazine Luiza: conversion on WhatsApp three times bigger traditional search
• O Boticário: 46% increase in conversion and average ticket 7.4% higher

Research by Bain & Company indicates that more than half of Brazilians would migrate their shopping to a virtual assistant. AI not only sells more, it reduces the cognitive effort of the consumer.

Generative AI and Open Source: The Multimodel Strategy That's Dominating Companies

On the corporate side, generative AI has ceased to be “experimentation” and has become mandatory component in business strategies.

According to the Canaltech, companies are adopting an “multimodel”, using open source solutions such as Llama and Mixtral to innovate quickly and avoid dependence on a single supplier.

In Brazil, the main obstacle to large-scale adoption remains the data quality and organization - not the technology itself. It's a problem of governance, not technical capacity.

The organizational impact is profound. IBM, for example, reported 40% savings in the HR operating budget in internal cases using AI automation. And specialized AI agents are expected to be orchestrated by department by 2026.

New professional roles are emerging, such as prompt engineer, while skills such as clear communication and strategic thinking become even more valuable.

Yoshua Bengio's Warning: “All Jobs Will Be Eliminated”

But it's not all positive figures and success stories. We must also look at the warnings from the scientists who built this technology.

Yoshua Bengio, winner of the Turing Award and one of the creators of modern AI, recently said deep regret about the path technology is taking.

Second InfoMoney, Bengio warns that the use of “almost all” is at risk in up to five years, impacting both cognitive and manual work. He fears risks “potentially catastrophic” and warns that democracy could collapse in two decades at the current rate.

Bengio's turning point was the emergence of ChatGPT. He notes that companies like Intel and Google have already frozen vacancies, signaling the structural transformation of the job market.

The scientist appeals to CEOs: “Take a step back” and collaborate in search of safe solutions, before unbridled competition creates extreme risks.

I tend to agree with the urgency of the warning, although I'm less alarmist about the timeframe. The history of technology shows us that transitions take longer than expected - but when they happen, they are more profound than we imagined.

What this Geopolitical Moment Means for Brazil, Companies and Professionals

So how do we connect all these dots?

We are living in a moment of extreme geopolitical tension where:

• The US is betting everything on AI leadership, but is critically dependent on China for infrastructure
• Investors flee possible Wall Street bubble and migrate to Chinese companies
• China accelerates investments in technological self-sufficiency, creating competitive alternatives
• Brazil and other emerging countries have windows of opportunity in specific niches

From a practical point of view, for companies and professionals, this means:

1. The race is no longer about “having AI”, but about “knowing how to orchestrate AI”

As in the case of Sebrae that I mentioned, the competitive edge lies in knowing how to architecting solutions, This means asking the right questions, validating results and ensuring strategic alignment. Technology is increasingly accessible - the shortage is in the knowledge of how to apply it.

2. Multi-model and open source strategies reduce dependency and accelerate innovation

Betting on a single AI supplier is risky both technically and financially. Smart companies are building flexible architectures that allow them to swap models according to need, cost and performance.

3. The knowledge gap is growing exponentially

The gap between those who master advanced AI and those who don't is widening dramatically. We're not talking 10% or 20% competitive advantage - we're talking 20x, 50x, 72x multipliers in productivity and efficiency.

4. Data quality is the new oil (again, but now for real)

In Brazil, the main obstacle isn't technology or talent - it's the quality and organization of data. Companies that invest seriously in data governance today will have a brutal competitive advantage tomorrow.

5. The impact at work is real, but the future is unwritten

Yes, tasks and even entire functions will be replaced. But new opportunities will also arise for those who adapt. The optimism of software developers (37% see AI as expanding opportunities) signals that the narrative doesn't have to be catastrophist - but it does call for active movement, not passivity.

Why the Geopolitics of AI Matters to Your Business Strategy

You may be thinking: “OK, Felipe, I understand geopolitics, but what does it change in my day-to-day life?”

It changes everything.

The tension between the US and China is not just a distant diplomatic conflict. It affects them directly:

• Cost of infrastructure: Shortages of critical components (such as batteries) could make data centers and AI services more expensive
• Access to models: Commercial restrictions can limit which technologies are available in which markets
• Market opportunities: Countries that are not rigidly aligned with one of the blocs (such as Brazil) can become strategic bridges
• Speed of innovation: Geopolitical competition is accelerating investment and technical advances on both sides

Smart companies aren't waiting to see “who wins” this dispute. They are building resilience strategies that work in multiple scenarios.

In my work with companies and governments, I have seen that the most prepared organizations are those that:

• Maintain flexible technological architectures (multi-model, multi-cloud)
• Invest in in-depth internal training, not just superficial training
• Develop robust data governance before scaling AI
• Create ethics and responsible use committees from the outset
• They understand AI as an organizational transformation, not just a technical tool

The Time is Now - And the Window is Closing

If you've come this far, you've probably already understood the urgency of the moment.

We're no longer at the stage of “should I or shouldn't I invest in AI?”. We're in the “how do I build sustainable competitive advantage using AI before my competitors do?”

The difference between leading and lagging behind is being consolidated now, This will affect the decisions you and your organization make in the coming weeks and months.

The cases I've shared - from Sebrae's 72x faster project to the conversion results of Brazilian retailers - show that technology works. The question is not “if” it will transform your sector, but “when” - and whether you will be prepared when it happens.

In my mentoring program and in the immersive courses I conduct, I work on exactly these issues with executives, entrepreneurs and innovation leaders: how to translate the potential of AI into practical and measurable results, how to build adoption strategies that work in the Brazilian reality, and how to develop the critical skills to lead in this new era.

Because at the end of the day, the greatest geopolitical tension is not between the US and China. It's between who's moving fast and who's lagging behind.

What about you?

Which side of the line do you want to be on?